When the Web 2.0 Bubble Bursts…

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rev2.org #5: February 1st 2006

I was thinking of the Web 2.0 bubble just yesterday and a few thoughts crossed my mind.

We have to know that the Web 2.0 bubble isn’t a NASDAQ bubble like the 1.0, obviously, and it will not burst within a day. It will burst over time and this is what the definition of ‘burst’ in this sentence means:

  • People will have their favourites, that they use regularly, and will not welcome new ones as what they need has already been filled up. Or, some people won’t even rely on Web 2.0 companies that haven’t been acquired by the big ones. Worse, some people won’t rely on Web 2.0 companies as a whole.
  • As a consequence, because they won’t be ‘the hot thing’ anymore, VCs will reject funding into Web 2.0 companies.
  • As a consequence, there will be less and lesser (through time) Web 2.0 companies that are created and more importantly that exist.
  • As a consequence, overall, Web 2.0, the hype, the companies, the everything, will die through time.

As I stated above, we have to know that this isn’t a bubble that will suddenly burst on July 17th, cause havoc, and kill Web 2.0. It’s a bubble that will die through time, as I like to say it, and then, when it’s dead, burst. But since it’s already dead, when it finally bursts, it won’t have much of an effect, the effect will really be noticeable when it’s dieing.

The timeframe? I don’t know. Months from now, an year, two, five, ten. I can’t really predict that, but when it happens, and I’m willing to put my money where my mouth is, and say that it will happen this way. Simply, because there is no other logical way it can happen.


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