Online Ad Spending Will Overtake Newspapers by 2013

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Think the New York Times and friends are having problems now?  Their ad revenue is only continuing to shrink while online advertising is only going up.  Magna Global, the marketing research firm, predicts that worldwide ad spending online will surpass newspapers in just a couple of years.

Their numbers show that the overall U.S. advertising market is barely holding steady through the end of the year, but it is sharply on the rise online and expected to rise 12.2% through 2011 (by Magna’s numbers).  The UK is expected to rise 7.7% during the same time frame.

Worldwide advertising as a whole is expected to go up 5.4% – a measly number except that everyone’s still recovering from a severe recession in the marketing business.

Video advertising, mostly TV but also probably online, is expected to be the rising star in ad spending for the next couple of years with online advertising coming in second behind television by 2013 – supplanting printed newspapers ads.  Magna predicts the online market to be at about $117 billion by then.

A large chunk of that $117B will be video at $4.7B, gaining 19.6% share by 2016 ($11.4B).  Likewise, mobile will account for $2.7B and will triple that by 2016.

Magna is probably a little bit optimistic in their predictions, but as PaidContent.org points out, not overly so.  They about in the middle of the predictions made by eMarketer and Zenith Optimedia.


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