Facebook Revealed: IPO Coming 2009 End?

Kara Swisher of BoomTown had some juicy details to reveal today about Facebook, apparently as blabbingly told to all by founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg at an employee meeting in Palo Alto Theater. For the record, most of these details are the root of all that question-dodging, executive talk, and light awkwardness in his 60 minute piece and many of the recent keynotes discussions he’s been involved in. Eric Schonfeld of TechCrunch put all these details in a neat list, which I’ll very creditingly steal for Rev2 readers instead of creating my own (again, very creditingly):

  •  2007 Revenues: $150 million
  • 2008 Revenues: $300 to $350 million (projected)
  • 2007 Headcount: 450
  • 2008 Headcount: 1,000 (projected)
  • 2008 Capital Expenditures: $200 million (i.e., servers)
  • 2008 EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization): $50 million
  • 2008 Cash Flow (EBITDA - CapEx): negative 150 million.

The most interesting detail, of course, is the fact that Facebook will be running at a negative 150 million cashflow for 2008, despite Zuckerberg’s comments that “something we’ve tried to with Facebook ever since the early days is run at break-even.” Of course, as Swisher points out in her post, that is only because of the recent $300 million Microsoft investment that gives them the thin-air $15 billion valuation.

After playing with some of those figures in my head, I think we can safely expect an IPO around late 2009/early 2010. Call me naive, but if they’re able to run at a -$150 million cashflow and their Microsoft investment gives them $300 million (not to mention any forthcoming ones over the next year) — tell me that doesn’t make clear leeway for an IPO in two years!

Regardless of whether they’ll be running at a break-even or a negative cashflow, one thing is for sure: if Facebook is to IPO, with a $15 billion+ valuation, their current revenues aren’t going to cut it. Through Ads or Beacon, they’re yet to find that killer strategy to make them susceptible to be a successful — or at least profitable — company later on. And with a deadline of 2010, time’s running out.

Google Boys Make A Pact

Back in 2004 Google top three executives made a pledge to all work together for 20 years. This pact was made back in August 2004 just before the company’s initial public offering. The three men involved, Larry Page, Sergey Brin and Eric Schmidt. All this information was stated in a joint interview for Fortune magazines 4th issue.

“We agreed the month before we went public that we should work together for 20 years,” said Schmidt, who added that he will be 69 years old by that time. Page would be 51 and Brin 50.

Each of the three gentleman are currently billionaires with Schmidt being Google CEO/Chairman, Page is President of Products and Brin President of Technology. This will eventually be a huge hit to Google is all three of these execs actually stick to their pact and leave at the end of 2024.

Google’s stocks are currently hovering around 548, and I don’t expect Wall Street to do any favours for the world’s most valuable Internet company in 2008. Google also has their Q4 2007 results coming out on Thursday so stay tuned for the analysis of those reports.

Amazon to Buy Audible for $300m

After having what seems like a decent quarter, Amazon announced today that it has bought audiobook giant Audible for approximately $300 million, or at a price of $11.50 per share. Although two companies have long been in competition with each other, it’s clear the New Jersey-based 200 employee company founded in the dotcom-rush has had the market lead in terms of format penetration and sales.

To Amazon, this will mean a huge bump in assets and presence in digital media. With the help of Amazon, Audible should now be able to offer even lower prices and bring their inventory to a broader audience. In terms of revenues, Amazon adds about $80 million of annual revenue to its income statement through Audible. And now with the help of each other, this number is likely to grow — there are a number of opportunities for both companies to leverage given their position.

Personally, I’m a loyal Audible user and, even though through DRM, find their service to be one of the best server-to-device experiences out there. In all it takes about a minute to make your purchase, around five for the file to download, and a second for it to go into your iTunes library once it has. While I haven’t tried Amazon’s own audiobook service, I can’t imagine it is as good as Audible’s — when it comes to spoken word entertainment, they’ve done nothing but nail the market.

The acquisition seems like another step in Amazon’s strategy to be a viable company in the day and age of new media and Web 2.0. As they revealed through yesterdays’ earnings report, there’s plenty of value in their non-core strategies — like their web services and book-reading device Kindle. While e-commerce is undoubtedly where they make their bread, there’s no saying as to where they’ll get tomorrow’s cake.

Etsy Grabs $27m Funding; Pet-Project No More

Brooklyn-based handcrafts store Etsy which launched back in June 2005 (and I distinctly remember purchasing a T-shirt from when it first crossed my radar) has announced it has raised a $27 million round from existing investors Union Square Ventures and Hubert Burda Media, and Facebook investor Jim Breyer of Accel Partners. From an idea to a company that’s grown to 50 employees in the last couple of years, it’s another milestone for the company.

Joining the board of Etsy will be Jim Breyer, who’ll be alongside Caterina Fake of Flickr and Fred Wilson of Union Square Ventures. Having run a break-even since its launch — the revenues of which impressively serves its 50 employees — this is the first time the company will have resources to expand and grow alongside its core business. As co-founder Rob Kalin outlines in this blog post, apart from hardware costs, a significant portion of the investment will be used to fund new features and product expansion — things like a new checkout system, revamped search feature, and expanding to other currencies and languages.

It’s hard to imagine how far that “neat idea with a slick design” I visited back in 2005 has gone to be. And it’s rightly so. What seemed to many (including myself) like a very niche idea, now produces million dollar revenue figures. For sticking with the idea alone, let alone getting it out to the world, having a viable business model, and following a one-of-a-kind vision — the credit and stature of Etsy is well-deserved.

What’s interesting to me is after getting this far, and now with a (lead) Facebook investor onboard, how much growth they will be able to sustain. Certainly, the idea — an online store that sells hand-made goods from people all around the world — has potential to appeal a much broader audience, and while doing great in terms of revenues, is yet to hit critical mass. For example, my mother — as well as I’m sure yours — would love this site, but I can’t see any way she’d find out about it except for me telling her. Getting to a profitable business is one thing, and reaching critical mass is another. The question is, now with the added resources, will Rob and his team be able to carry out the challenge? Certainly, some great rewards wait on the other side.

France To Bar Internet Access For P2P Download

Are you based out of Paris? Did you download your favorite music collection from Limewire or any other P2P software? According to a new pact between French Internet Service Providers, the government and film and music rights owners, you’re Internet access could potentially be barred.

According to the new agreement, users will receive a warning for each illegal download and if they repeat their “mistake” for three times, they could loose their Internet access.

I’m sure everybody is keen to find out answers two couple of key questions: why & how? Why is this being done? It is being used to target intruders who make multiple copies of music for profit. I’m also trying to explore how the authorities are going to differentiate between a torrent of legal software and copyrighted content.

The deal has invoked mixed reactions from experts and internet users. According to head of recording industry, John Kennedy, “This is the single most important initiative to help win the war on online piracy that we have seen so far”. French president Nicolas Sarkozy says, “The Internet must not become a high-tech Far West, a lawless zone where outlaws can pillage works with abandon or, worse, trade in them in total impunity. And on whose backs? On artists’ backs.”

On the other hand, French consumers’ groups and politicians, say that the deal is too restrictive. Needless to see the average internet user is unhappy. The project has not been voted yet. Before any action is taken there must be a legal complain of downloading on a specific file by the music producer. Not only that, the independent authority has to find downloaders of the file and warn them.

But the question remains: why would an ISP loose on customers? The whole scandal sounds like a breach of freedom of information.

I’m sure this will get the French protesters lining up.

A Wikipedia Ban for Dutch Staff

wikipedia The Dutch Ministry of Justice has temporarily put a ban in place which would restrict its 30,000 workers from accessing Wikipedia at work. It might come across as a shocking news, but the development is not really unreasonable.

The ministry is planning to analyze the misuse of Wikipedia during this temporary ban. It has been reported that 800 Wikipedia entries were edited from the ministry computers.Majority of these changes were minor but some of them did involve political figures and parties. The worst part was that these entries were being updated during work hours affecting productivity during work.

Ministry spokesman Ivo Hommes said, “We’re doing this as a temporary measure while we investigate how much use - and misuse - our people make of Wikipedia, and what we can do about it”.

As a reader when you come across this news, you might find it disappointing as access to an encyclopedia is being limited in the 2.0 era of user-generated content. Similar questions were raised when Telstra had banned its employees from using Facebook. In both the cases worker productivity-loss came as a big issue.

Update: Even Facebook seems to be facing the heat of bans. An update from The MEMRI Blog quotes that Syria has blocked Facebook.

Facebook’s Mission China

logo face Amidst the fuss going around Amazon’s Kindle, social networking giant Facebook has generated buzz with its decision to acquire Chinese social networking portal Zhanzuo.com for a whooping amount of $85 million. There has been speculation going around for quite sometime about Facebook’s entry into the Chinese region and this news doesn’t throw a surprise at all.

China’s market is booming big time and as such China is the second largest internet market after the United states. The last few weeks or so have had quite a bit of news from China. There was news was about Facebook’s decision to register domain name Facebook.cn. Then there was discussion about Xiaonei.com, Facebook’s Chinese copy-cat.

So for whom is Zhanzuo.com and what generates Facebook’s interest in it? Zhanzuo is extremely popular site in student community and has a user base more than 7 million. Also, it ranks amongst the top 250 sites in China in terms of user-base, popularity and stuff like that. Add on that, Facebook’s already existing base of more than 100,000 users of its English-language network in China.

Duncan Riley has pointed out that Zhanzuo.com’s traffic has slowed down during the last couple of months. Well, if we go by the comments and the news reports Duncan looks to be wrong. As a matter of fact, Alexa had reset the counters to 0 for several Chinese sites including Zhanzuo.com. The funny logic of student’s school causing traffic dip looks a stupid one :)

There has been mixed reaction from experts about Facebook’s plans. One of the comment in Techcrunch says, ‘Although things are changing (towards western country), especially in big city, I am afraid it is still not a proper time for a site, like Facebook to become popular.’ Another internet analyst, a new media expert think the same. It might be because of strict norms or past incidents which caused problems for Yahoo in China. The bottom line is “There has been no successful foreign acquisition in China.”

However, that is history. Facebook is playing its cards well. Understandably after extensive research Facebook has zeroed in on Zhanzuo.com. So there’s a definite opportunity out there. Although the deal is yet to be finalized, if the move pays-off Facebook could really really make it big.

Update: According to Nick O’ Neill on AllFacebook.com the acquisition rumors of Zhanzou.com are false.  A Facebook PR executive is believed to have told Nick, “Facebook has no plans to acquire any company in China.”

Apple, Microsoft and The Social Media Saga

apple For the two giants, Apple and Microsoft, yesterday turned out to be quite a day in the blogosphere.

So who started the debate? It was instigated by none other than the Robert Scoble whose post virtually rebuked Apple as his Macintosh didn’t boot after a routine installation update. Robert summed up his extremely critical post by saying, “Well, sorry. The shine is wearing off. Screw you Apple.” The dead machine particularly pissed off Robert for two key reason:

- The advertisements shown claim that Mac is better than Windows.

- There hasn’t been much of assistance from the PR team at Apple.

Some obvious questions which strike your mind after reading this post. Is Apple really inactive in social-media? Has Apple been making some efforts to communicate socially? Did Apple look into Robert’s post? From the post it seems as if Apple is really not concerned to engage in online conversations and relies on its followers to defend its brand.

The debate moved over to Andy Beal’s post at Marketing Piligrim who started by citing Robert and then included his own thoughts. At the end of the day, Andy’s thoughts appear to be in sync. with Robert meaning a weak up call for Apple to engage in online conversations. So who’s making a point here.. Apple’s need realize embrace blogs, forums, social networks, Twitter etc. is realized by none other than its customers. Andy is bang on when he says, “It’s simple: Apple’s customers embrace social media on behalf of the company.”

Sadly, comments to the conversation were closed a little while ago. According to Andy, “It’s clear that Apple supporters are unable to continue the conversation in a cordial manner. After receiving abusive emails and comments from Apple supporters, I’m forced to close the comments.”

On the other hand, Microsoft’s new Windows Live platform gives users a new set of social and sharing tools that aim to address the growing significance of social media. Microsoft had conducted a research titled Windows Live Social Media Opportunities this month before launching the Windows Live service. According to the report it was found that social media tools are vital for consumers and represent a great opportunity for advertisers.Microsoft would now be using these tools to track behavior. Contrasting strategies from the two, isn’t it :)

What do you think, is there a serious need for Apple to participate in online communities, forums, twitters and other social platforms?

Motorola Recognizes The Power of Social Networking

12767_MotImage Handset companies are diving deeper into social networking space. Motorola is the latest to join the bandwagon, with its decision to make an equity investment in Tilefile Limited, a social-media platform developer. Tilefile has developed an innovative social media platform that establishes connection between users and communities via a “content-neutral” media format.

A statement made Motorola’s managing director Reese Schroeder says, “Our investment reflects our commitment to innovative companies, such as Tilefile, as they strive to seamlessly connect people and communities.” Hmm… I’m not sure whether it is commitment to innovation or fierce competition from rival companies like Nokia which seem to be surging ahead.

Having said that, the move shows that social networking has made an impact on these mobile companies which have been traditionally into hardware and software of handsets. I was listening to FIR podcast the other day, which focuses on the shift from desktop computer to access web. Today’s consumer doesn’t really like to be tied down to the computer, and that is why we have a product like the iPhone that is making it big. With so much of activity going on it is natural for consumers to expect features of sharing video, pictures, music and links on the cellphones.

The Tilefile platform combines audio, photos and videos into a single content-neutral format which is called “Tile.” The social activity takes place around each tile. The Tile “front” is the media and the “back” of a Tile is the community. Users are empowered with a non-linear view of multiple “social media packages” which fits phone and web. These Tiles can be clubbed with others to form combinations that can be easily shared or launched to other locations on the Internet. The social activity also travels along and thus connects people via messaging, sharing and publishing.

Motorola’s move doesn’t come as a big surprise as rival Nokia has already forayed into content and services. As a matter of fact, Nokia prefers the “Internet company,” although its profitable deals come from low-cost handset sales in emerging markets. Is Motorola going to benefit from this deal? Only time can tell.

Box.net’s OpenBox: Revolution in Online File Storage

Box.net Logo In my recent article about Adobe’s new Buzzword online word processor, I mentioned that dozens of different web desktops have launched, attempting to bring features traditionally confined to computers to the internet itself. Adobe’s Share is a corollary to Buzzword and hasn’t yet been released to the public. When it launches, Adobe plans for it to be a repository for your documents on the internet. They’re launching into a field of competition, and things heated up on Tuesday after Box.net announced their new OpenBox service.

Box.net is a standout among the crowded field of online storage providers. They face competition from the recently acquired Mozy, eSnips, OmniDrive, XDrive, and several others. Box.net provides users with 1GB of free online storage and gives them a well-designed interface to store their files in, complete with folder organization. I was introduced to Box.net through the earlier reviewed/previewed Mosoto service which, like many other startups, relies on Box.net for backend storage. Box.net made news earlier in the year by allowing users to open office documents in Zoho’s Office Applications. All this was an effort to make Box.net far more than a storage place for documents. Instead, it was starting to become a launch point for work on the web. Just as with Macintosh’s Finder or Windows Explorer, documents could be opened and edited immediately, without waiting for a download.

OpenBox: The Launchpad
On Tuesday, Box.net has announced OpenBox, allowing their users the ability to open any sort of file - music, office and more - in various different web services. I had the opportunity to speak with Box.net CEO Aaron Levie, who called the announcement a “complete 180? from their initial widget strategy. Levie also blogged about the new announcement on the Box.net blog.The new service finally makes Box.net the launchpad for users, allowing them to store all their data in one place and edit it using a variety of applications. Users can post photos to their blogs, edit photos with Picnik or Snipshot, edit documents with ThinkFree or Zoho, or do various other things. Launch partners include Autodesk’s Freewheel, Echosign, eFax, Myxer, Picnik, Scribd, Snipshot, ThinkFree, Twitter, Zazzle, and Zoho.

OpenBox Services

Adding Box.net’s New OpenBox Partners to the Services Menu

“Surprisingly Easy”
Other platforms, like Facebook’s, require developers to learn new programming languages in order to integrate their applications (in Facebook’s case, it’s FBML). Box.net’s CEO was eager to note that the process of integrating an application into Box.net’s online file storage system is “surprisingly easy.” Since Box.net doesn’t have a new API themselves, developers have the opportunity to build their API into Box.net itself, meaning they don’t have to learn anything new in order to participate in OpenBox. Additionally, Levie notes that the company is “trying to be very open” and attempting to match every company’s needs. Openness is nothing new for Box.net, which pioneered the use of APIs when it was one of the first online storage companies to release one in December of 2005. Prior to the announcement of OpenBox, Box.net could send and share files, but no access was granted to the file system itself.

The company is embracing the Web 2.0 concept of free data by allowing various applications to talk to each other, rather than using embeds. Box.net is also helping to standardize communications between apps. All of this is part of the search for seamless integration with other services and Box.net itself. Levie said Box.net would still approach companies for official partnerships, despite the availability of their SDK and API.

“As Complementary as Possible”
The ease of use for developers can only mean new and advanced features for users of Box.net. The release of the Software Development Kit on December 5 is sure to help Levie’s quest to create a “completely web based experience” in which users maintained a “core set of files online.” As I mentioned earlier, I share Levie’s view that Box.net can become somewhat of a “local file system,” hosting users’ files and allowing them to interact with them, as opposed to the typical backup and file transfer tasks that are usually reserved for online storage applications.

Box.net Service Creation

Creating a New Service with Box.net’s OpenBox

Box.net has also made sure that developers could keep a “consistent UI” for their applications, instead of forcing them to change the application’s design to match Box’s. When a user opens a photo in Picnik, they are transferred to the full application itself, not an embed in Box.net’s page. What I found most impressive is the ability of these applications to save the files back to Box.net. One can open a photo in Picnik to edit, make some changes, and then save the resultant file right back to Box.net. The desktop, literally, has become irrelevant.

Box.net’s Picnik

Picnik’s UI is Consistent Throughout Editing with Box.net

Blazing New Trails
Box.net’s traditional competitors, companies like XDrive and OmniDrive, are suddenly being left in the dust with the announcement of OpenBox. Adobe Share, an application that ties into the earlier reviewed Buzzword, has yet to hit the market but promises easy and central storage of documents, but at the moment, cannot hope to compete with Box.net’s extensive offering. Levie, however, said he was thrilled to see Adobe getting involved with “online initiatives,” despite the fact that the company is now an “indirect competitor.”

Box.net eFax real

Easy Integration with eFax

Levie’s favorite partner of the new OpenBox companies is Autodesk’s online CAD rendering, which he notes is “really rich” and all web based. CAD files, typically reserved for the realm of e-mail, are now available online and can be stored on Box.net for easy retrieval and viewing. Levie also impressed me with eFax’s integration. Now, it’s simple for users to fax documents directly from their local file systems. Clicking on the file menu brings up an eFax option, and users can choose a fax number to send the document to. eFax automatically renders PDFs, DOCs, and more. It’s an impressive step.

“Productivity Driven Solution”
Box.net finally allows users to upload files once, to a central location, in order to use them with a wide variety of web services. Integration with other third party services will not be available until December 5, but I am already amazed at the new features Box.net has added with its OpenBox partners. As Levie claimed, Box.net finally has become a “file system” for the web. The service is also not limited to technophiles; instead, it’s easy to use for even the casual user. Services are added via an “OpenBox services” menu filled with various checkboxes. To use the various services, simply right-click a file and go to the bottom, where OpenBox applications are available to interact with the file that was clicked on. The company currently boasts more than one million registered users. I imagine that number will skyrocket with this announcement.

Box.net services

Box.net’s Intuitive Services Menu

Box.net CEO claimed that OpenBox gives the company “more power to innovate.” I agree, and I believe that OpenBox has the potential to give the internet itself more power to innovate. The concept of a unified web file system, once nothing more than a pipe dream, is finally a reality with Box.net’s OpenBox. Box.net was once a simple widget platform for file storage. Now, it has the possibility to revolutionize our perceptions of the internet.